Drive to the Finals Expert Pick: 6/10/08
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By Ben Zani, www.rotowire.com

I was afraid we had lost him. While it wasn’t technically reported on the obituary pages or the nightly news, I was entirely convinced that Ray Allen had passed away a few weeks ago, and an errant-shooting zombie had taken over his physical being. 31% shooting from the field for a nine-game stretch? 16% from three in the same time period? This was Ray Allen, owner of the sweetest shooting stroke around. Jesus Shuttlesworth himself! And yet, seemingly out of nowhere, his game just seemed to fall off a cliff. I mean, it had to be zombies, right?

Thankfully, my zombie theory was disproved midway through the Eastern Conference Finals, where Allen has regained his form. In the last seven games, Allen has averaged a respectable 16.4 points per game, has shot better (46% from the field), and a PRA of 26. He’s topped 25 PRA in five of his last seven games. He’s shooting the ball better in that span as well - 46% from the field. Allen is even rebounding the ball, including eight in Thursday’s Game 1 against the Lakers. Most importantly, he’s lost the glazed-over look that you often associate with the most ill-intended of zombies. You know, the brain-eating ones.

So it is with zombie-free confidence that we the experts will take Allen for Tuesday’s Game 3. Not only has he looked better recently, but he’s also been better on the road all year. Allen’s road splits in the playoffs have been better than his home numbers, by a 22-20 PRA margin. That discrepancy was similar in the regular season, as he averaged a 24.9 PRA on the road, and a 22.5 PRA at home.

Paul Pierce is our other major option left on the board, and I certainly couldn’t argue with anyone who would want to pick him in this spot. His playoff PRA (28.6) is about eight higher than Allen’s, and he seemed fully recovered from the pro wrestling-style knee injury he suffered in Game 1 (where our valiant hero miraculously summons the strength to bodyslam Andre the Giant while standing on one leg). Still, we’ll want an ace in the hole if this series ends up going long, and Pierce is our only remaining player with a PRA of more than 14.

So the pick here is Allen, especially now that I’m no longer convinced that he is, in fact, deceased. Now to find out what type of zombies have inhabited the body of the Red Sox’ David Ortiz…

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Ray Allen, BOSWhen: Tuesday, June 10 at 9:00 p.m. ET
Opponent: @ LA Lakers
Pts: 14.5 Reb: 3.5 Ast: 2.9
Playoffs Average PRA: 20.9
Most Recent Pick: Rajon Rondo, BOS
Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 1,169
Expert Pick Archive
2. Paul Pierce, BOS @ LAL (28.6 PRA)
3. Kendrick Perkins, BOS @ LAL (13.9 PRA)
1. Vladimir Radmanovic, LAL vs. BOS (13.8 PRA)
Pierce would certainly bee a strong selection here, especially with the way he shot during Game 2. We’re holding off on Pierce in hopes that he’ll give us a much-needed percentile boost late in the series, but he’ll probably earn you at least 30 PRA whenever you play him. From there, there’s a huge dropoff to Perkins and Radmanovic, who are within 0.1 PRA of each other (Perkins at 13.9, Radmanovic at 13.8). Both players have shown the capacity to get hot during these playoffs, though Perkins’ gimpy ankle may give some pause. Radmanovic’s 13-point, 10-rebound outburst in Game 2 could make him a popular pick here, but we’d like to see more consistency from the Serbian forward.

Monday
Jan. 5
10-Day contracts may be signed

Thursday
Jan. 22
All-Star starters announced

Thursday
Jan. 5
10-Day contracts can be signed


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